After a slightly sluggish weekend, the crypto market saw a mild rebound on Monday, kicking off the second half of 2025 on a cautiously optimistic note. As global and domestic economic dynamics continue to evolve, several major events lined up this week could introduce fresh volatility, or provide momentum to the cryptocurrency landscape.

At the center of this shifting outlook is U.S. President Donald Trump’s recently passed $3.4 trillion fiscal stimulus package, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Passed narrowly in the House, the bill is expected to lift investor confidence, especially among major U.S. corporations with exposure to tech and digital assets. Coupled with last week’s stronger-than-expected labor data and a rebound in consumer sentiment, the atmosphere is warming, but far from stable.

Let’s break down what might matter most in the days ahead.

1. US Economic Reports and Energy

Outlook

On Monday, the Consumer Credit Change data for May will be released. This report, though often overlooked, gives insight into how much Americans are borrowing — a key measure of spending confidence.

Tuesday brings two more critical indicators: the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook and the Business Optimism Index for June. Energy forecasts can impact inflation sentiment, while the optimism index may reflect whether U.S. businesses see expansion or headwinds ahead,  both of which influence risk appetite, including in crypto markets.

2. Federal Reserve Minutes and Interest Rate Hopes

The market is not currently expecting a rate cut in July (odds stand at just 4%) but that could shift after the Fed releases the minutes from its latest meeting on Wednesday. Investors and analysts will look closely for any soft language that might suggest future rate cuts, particularly in October. Looser monetary policy is historically supportive of speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.

3. Tariff Decision Deadline and Bond Auctions

July 9 is a date to circle: it marks the end of the 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and its trade partners. If Trump opts to delay tariffs again, markets may interpret that as a sign of hesitancy, which could stoke investor optimism in riskier assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.

Simultaneously, the U.S. Treasury will hold three major bond auctions this week:

• $58 billion in 3-year notes (Tuesday)

• $39 billion in 10-year notes (Wednesday)

• $22 billion in 30-year notes (Thursday)

The level of demand for these bonds could send signals about inflation expectations and investor sentiment, indirectly swaying crypto pricing.

Crypto Snapshot: What to Watch

The global crypto market cap rose modestly in Asia on Monday, edging up to $3.44 trillion while staying within its two-month trading range.

Bitcoin, which briefly reclaimed the $109,500 level, is hovering just 2.2% below its all-time high. If favorable developments emerge from the Fed or the tariff decision, Bitcoin could break into new territory by mid-week.

Ethereum also touched $2,600 on Sunday night but met resistance. While bullish sentiment has been building thanks to institutional interest and upgrades to the Ethereum network, traders remain cautious for now.

The days ahead are filled with market-moving data and decisions. For crypto investors, this is a week to watch closely, because even minor headlines may have outsized effects in this high-sentiment environment.